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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
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Binding: Paperback
Dewey Decimal Number: 123.3
EAN: 9780812975215
Edition: 2 Updated
ISBN: 0812975219
Label: Random House Trade Paperbacks
Manufacturer: Random House Trade Paperbacks
Number Of Items: 1
Number Of Pages: 368
Publication Date: August 23, 2005
Publisher: Random House Trade Paperbacks
Release Date: August 23, 2005
Studio: Random House Trade Paperbacks
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Editorial Review:
If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards
This book is about luck -- or more precisely how we perceive and deal with luck in business and life.
Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill -- the world of trading -- Fooled by Randomness is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining and narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling and explaining three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern world.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the Ancient World's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses. In addition we meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his trading life, but who also falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
But the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed -- the lucky fool in the right place at the right time. The embodiment of the "Survival of the Least Fit." Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained through chance. A monkey banging on a keyboard may eventually produce the Iliad, but would you sign him to write the sequel?
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary?
Must we always try to uncover non-existent messages in random events?
It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
Customer Reviews
Average Rating: 
Rating:  - Use Your Luck To Your Advantage
Many concepts in "Fooled by Randomness" can be mentally applied to many areas and circumstances of our lives. This book has a lot of variety both past and present that can help us in the future in how we *think* about things, our environment, and more importantly, ourselves. This review will take a different path because there have been so many written about this book already.
Author Nassim Taleb believes that Randomness and luck is more of a factor regarding people's positions and ... Read More
Rating:  - I'm still a fool after reading this book
PROS:
* The book argues an important message (that we underestimate the role of luck in our results/outcome).
* A few interesting anecdotes.
CONS:
* Although the author is self-deprecating at times, it smells more of false modesty rather than geniune humility (which he argues everyone should have). Most of the time (as other reviewers have noted) his arrogance comes out loud and clear, and that's annoying.
* Disjointed style of writing. He rambles, jumps around, ... Read More
Rating:  - Great concept but poor writing
Well, what can I say? The concept of "black swamp" function is very original and as a professional investor, I appreciate the author's insight into this critical concept to long term return. However, the whole book is about this concept and I don't learn anything new after finishing the first few chapters. Moreover, the author is a trader rather than a writer which probably explain his less-than-perfect reading style. Readers have to be prepared for his "non-linear" logic and could be very confusing at ... Read More
Rating: - are you fooled???
i find it fascinating the diverse reviews this book has received, it seems to have a polarizing effect on readers! for me the book was engrossing, but admittedly i am a fan of taleb's writing and philosophy of life. while he is clearly not concerned with journalistic rules he is able to communicate his point. so what if his sentence structure is not perfect. what i appreciate most about his works, fooled by randomness included is that they caused me to think, and rethink my own beliefs and perceptions ... Read More
Rating: - Randomness fools us all.
This everyman's introduction to randomness should prove interesting to everyone who invests for profit, fun or retirement. The narrative style conveys the author's point that random spikes or troughs can occur in any investment without warning and that the oft used normal curve does not necessarily model the behavior of investments. It's sort of like saying that the normal wind speed is an accurate model for what could happen in tornado alley on a specific day in the summer.
That being said, there's ... Read More
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